About the author
Nate Silver is an American statistician and writer known for baseball and election forecasting. He developed PECOTA and founded FiveThirtyEight before later publishing the Silver Bulletin.
The Signal and the Noise moves across fields to compare prediction environments. The recurring standard is calibration: a forecaster should state uncertainty clearly enough for later results to reveal whether the probabilities were useful.
Where to start
Start with The Signal and the Noise for an accessible tour of probability, models, and why some kinds of forecast improve faster than others.
